{"id":3231,"date":"2026-01-26T18:37:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T18:37:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev-wordpress.lucisun.com\/?page_id=3231"},"modified":"2026-02-17T01:56:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T01:56:23","slug":"exceedance-probabilities","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/dev-wordpress.lucisun.com\/es\/soluciones\/lusim\/exceedance-probabilities\/","title":{"rendered":"Probabilidades de superaci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"3231\" class=\"elementor elementor-3231\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ff23ca9 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ff23ca9\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab3c8d1 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"ab3c8d1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d969d6d elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d969d6d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInDown&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Soluciones\/Lusim<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0064375 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0064375\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInUp&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>En muchos proyectos fotovoltaicos, la evaluaci\u00f3n del rendimiento no puede basarse en una \u00fanica estimaci\u00f3n determinista. En su lugar, los resultados se expresan en t\u00e9rminos de probabilidades de superaci\u00f3n que cuantifican la probabilidad de alcanzar o superar un determinado nivel de rendimiento.<\/p><p>Indicadores como P50 o P90 se utilizan habitualmente en las evaluaciones del rendimiento energ\u00e9tico y en las evaluaciones financieras para caracterizar el riesgo. Estos indicadores son fundamentales para los an\u00e1lisis de financiabilidad, las discusiones contractuales y las decisiones de inversi\u00f3n.<\/p><p>LuSim soporta el an\u00e1lisis de probabilidad de superaci\u00f3n cuantificando y propagando expl\u00edcitamente las incertidumbres a lo largo de la cadena de modelado fotovoltaico, en lugar de basarse en m\u00e1rgenes gen\u00e9ricos o porcentajes fijos de incertidumbre.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-25ba04f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"25ba04f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3aef7a4 e-flex e-con-boxed elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"3aef7a4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInLeft&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9f16f98 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9f16f98\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7c63cbe elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7c63cbe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Exceedance probabilities as uncertainty quantification, not optimisation<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1636342 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1636342\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Exceedance analysis in LuSim is strictly separated from design optimisation. It is performed for a defined reference configuration, corresponding to a specific system layout, geometry, and set of operating assumptions.<\/p><p>The objective is not to explore alternative designs, but to quantify the residual uncertainty associated with the selected design. This uncertainty reflects limitations in data, modelling assumptions, environmental variability, and system behaviour that cannot be fully resolved at the design stage.<\/p><p>This distinction ensures that exceedance probabilities represent risk and confidence levels, not deliberate design variability.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-90261f6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"90261f6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b2f33f5 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"b2f33f5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-03cb921 e-flex e-con-boxed elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"03cb921\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInRight&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ada8495 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"ada8495\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-538801a elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"538801a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Structured representation of uncertainty sources <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e0982b elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5e0982b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>LuSim follows a system level view of photovoltaic energy yield, where the conversion of solar resource into delivered electricity is represented as a sequence of gains and losses. Each stage of this modelling chain introduces both a deterministic contribution and an associated uncertainty.<\/p><p>Uncertainty sources may include solar resource assessment, irradiance transposition, shading and mismatch, soiling, module and inverter performance, system availability, and long term degradation. The relative importance and maturity of these sources vary depending on technology, site conditions, and project phase.<\/p><p>By making uncertainty sources explicit and traceable, LuSim avoids treating uncertainty as a single aggregated correction and instead links confidence bounds to identifiable physical and modelling assumptions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b831c5 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7b831c5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0be6b3a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"0be6b3a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d10f247 e-flex e-con-boxed elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d10f247\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInLeft&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-95dcc5f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"95dcc5f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e265ec6 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e265ec6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Propagation of uncertainties to performance indicators <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-10d1264 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"10d1264\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Exceedance probabilities require the propagation of uncertainties through the full PV energy yield and financial modelling chain.<\/p><p>LuSim admite varias estrategias de propagaci\u00f3n de incertidumbre seg\u00fan el contexto y la informaci\u00f3n disponible. Estas incluyen aproximaciones gaussianas para incertidumbres peque\u00f1as y bien comportadas, enfoques basados en convoluci\u00f3n para distribuciones asim\u00e9tricas o acotadas, y muestreo de Monte Carlo cuando las correlaciones o las no linealidades son significativas.<\/p><p>La elecci\u00f3n del m\u00e9todo de propagaci\u00f3n es parte del compromiso del modelado, equilibrando precisi\u00f3n, transparencia y esfuerzo computacional. Es importante destacar que las distribuciones resultantes siempre se anclan a la misma configuraci\u00f3n de referencia.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5d43f8a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5d43f8a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0cf4d86 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"0cf4d86\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9ea5d04 e-flex e-con-boxed elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9ea5d04\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInRight&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dcdff9b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"dcdff9b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-df57095 elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"df57095\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Indicadores de excedencia basados en energ\u00eda<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e58e848 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e58e848\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>LuSim admite la derivaci\u00f3n de probabilidades de excedencia para indicadores relacionados con la energ\u00eda, como el rendimiento energ\u00e9tico anual o la energ\u00eda entregada.<\/p><p>Al analizar las distribuciones de salida resultantes, se pueden extraer directamente valores como P50 o P90. Estos valores reflejan la incertidumbre impulsada por la geometr\u00eda espec\u00edfica del sitio, la complejidad del sombreado y las suposiciones de modelado, en lugar de promedios gen\u00e9ricos de la industria.<\/p><p>Este enfoque mejora la credibilidad y la interpretabilidad de las m\u00e9tricas de excedencia basadas en energ\u00eda en proyectos fotovoltaicos complejos.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-356cced e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"356cced\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b1d5c6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"7b1d5c6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cc239e3 e-flex e-con-boxed elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"cc239e3\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInLeft&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b1160a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7b1160a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-907ff2d elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"907ff2d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Indicadores de excedencia financiera <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a1a497f elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a1a497f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Las probabilidades de excedencia tambi\u00e9n se pueden aplicar a indicadores de rendimiento financiero derivados de la configuraci\u00f3n de referencia.<\/p><p>LuSim admite el an\u00e1lisis de excedencia para cantidades como ingresos, valor actual neto, tasa interna de retorno o costo nivelado de la energ\u00eda. Estos indicadores se calculan de manera consistente para cada resultado simulado utilizando las mismas suposiciones financieras.<\/p><p>Esto permite evaluar el riesgo financiero como una consecuencia directa de la incertidumbre t\u00e9cnica y de modelado, en lugar de como un ajuste separado o puramente financiero.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6958c0f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6958c0f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-433701b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"433701b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2bebf4f e-flex e-con-boxed elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"2bebf4f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInRight&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0657456 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"0657456\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-516acab elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"516acab\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Evoluci\u00f3n de la incertidumbre a trav\u00e9s de las fases del proyecto <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fb431f8 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fb431f8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Uncertainty levels are not static across the lifetime of a PV project. In the pre construction phase, exceedance probabilities reflect limited information and conservative assumptions. During operation, monitoring data and diagnostics can reduce some uncertainty components while revealing others.<\/p><p>LuSim is designed to support this evolution by allowing uncertainty assumptions to be refined as better data becomes available. This makes it possible to revisit exceedance metrics over time and to distinguish between reducible and irreducible sources of uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-644ccae e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"644ccae\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1455e9c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1455e9c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d7d3c2f e-flex e-con-boxed elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d7d3c2f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInLeft&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a3c0694 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"a3c0694\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4a318c7 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4a318c7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Role in bankability and decision support <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-829b5ee elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"829b5ee\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Exceedance probabilities produced with LuSim are intended to support informed risk assessment and transparent decision making.<\/p><p>By grounding uncertainty quantification in detailed physical modelling and traceable assumptions, LuSim provides exceedance metrics that are consistent with the actual complexity of the photovoltaic system being assessed.<\/p><p>This approach is particularly relevant for projects where geometry driven effects, innovative configurations, or atypical environments make simplified uncertainty treatments insufficient.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-02c9cdf e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"02c9cdf\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Solutions\/Lusim In many photovoltaic projects, performance assessment cannot rely on a single deterministic estimate. Instead, results are expressed in terms of exceedance probabilities that quantify the likelihood of achieving or exceeding a given level of performance. Indicators such as P50 or P90 are commonly used in energy yield assessments and financial evaluations to characterise risk. [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":1939,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_header_footer","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-3231","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Exceedance probabilities - Lucisun<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dev-wordpress.lucisun.com\/es\/soluciones\/lusim\/exceedance-probabilities\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Exceedance probabilities - Lucisun\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Solutions\/Lusim In many photovoltaic projects, performance assessment cannot rely on a single deterministic estimate. Instead, results are expressed in terms of exceedance probabilities that quantify the likelihood of achieving or exceeding a given level of performance. Indicators such as P50 or P90 are commonly used in energy yield assessments and financial evaluations to characterise risk. 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